Worldwide impact of economic cycles on suicide trends over 3 decades: Differences according to level of development. A mixed effect model study

Abstract

Objectives: To investigate the trends and correlations of gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP) per capita on suicide rates in 10 WHO regions during the past 30 years. Design: Analyses of databases of PPP-adjusted GDP per capita and suicide rates. Countries were grouped according to the Global Burden of Disease regional classification system. Data sources: World Bank’s official website and WHO’s mortality database. Statistical analyses: After graphically displaying PPP-adjusted GDP per capita and suicide rates, mixed effect models were used for representing and analysing clustered data. Results: Three different groups of countries, based on the correlation between the PPP-adjusted GDP per capita and suicide rates, are reported: (1) positive correlation: developing (lower middle and upper middle income) Latin-American and Caribbean countries, developing countries in the South East Asian Region including India, some countries in the Western Pacific Region (such as China and South Korea) and high-income Asian countries, including Japan; (2) negative correlation: high-income and developing European countries, Canada, Australia and New Zealand and (3) no correlation was found in an African country. Conclusions: PPP-adjusted GDP per capita may offer a simple measure for designing the type of preventive interventions aimed at lowering suicide rates that can be used across countries. Public health interventions might be more suitable for developing countries. In high-income countries, however, preventive measures based on the medical model might prove more useful