The short and long-term impact of Syrian refugees on the Turkish economy: a simulation approach
Entity
UAM. Departamento de Economía AplicadaDate
2019-11-18Citation
10.1080/14683849.2019.1691920
Turkish Studies 21.5 (2020): 661 - 683
ISSN
1468-3849DOI
10.1080/14683849.2019.1691920Editor's Version
https://doi.org/10.1080/14683849.2019.1691920Subjects
economic impact of migration; migration; Syrian refugees; Turkish economy; EconomíaNote
This is an Accepted Manuscript version of the following article, accepted for publication in Turkish Studies 21.5 (2020): 661 - 683. It is deposited under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any wayRights
© 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis GroupEsta obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial-SinObraDerivada 4.0 Internacional.
Abstract
This article presents the results of a simulation on the short-, medium- and long-term aggregated economic contribution of Syrian refugees on the Turkish economy. The simulation is focused on two sources of impact: refugees’ access to the Turkish labor market and the investment flow generated by Syrians inside the country. An input–output approach is used to compute economic effects considering the intersectoral linkages of the Turkish economy, thereby expanding the focus of a classic impact study. Our results show a positive economic impact of Syrian refugees of around 2 percent of GDP in the short term and 4 percent in the long term. Syrian immigration in Turkey is becoming a factor of economic dynamism that not only benefits the Syrian community itself but also the Turkish host communities. The direct and indirect contribution in terms of production and demand is very relevant and, properly channeled and promoted, can become a relative advantage for the country and not a burden of care
Files in this item
Google Scholar:Mahía Casado, Ramón
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Arce Borda, Rafael de
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Koç, Ahmet Ali
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Bölük, Gülden
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