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dc.contributor.authorCendejas, José Luis
dc.contributor.authorFernández de Pinedo Echevarría, Nadia 
dc.contributor.authorMuñoz Pérez, Félix Fernando 
dc.date.accessioned2015-05-27T13:51:06Z
dc.date.available2015-05-27T13:51:06Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.identifier.issn1885-6888
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10486/666428en
dc.description.abstractTime series filtering methods such as the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, with a consensual choice of the smoothing parameter, eliminate the possibility of identifying long swing cycles (e.g., Kondratieff type) or, alternatively, may distort periodicities that are in fact present in the data, giving rise, for example, to spurious Kuznets-type cycles. In this paper, we propose filtering Maddison’s time series for the period 1870-2010 for a selection of developed countries using a less restrictive filtering technique that does not impose but rather estimates the cut-off frequency. In particular, we use unobserved component models that optimally estimate the smoothing parameter. Using this methodology, we identify cycles of periods mainly in the range of 4-7 years (Juglar type cycles), as well as a pattern of cyclical convergence that deepens with globalization processes. After 1950, a common business cycle factor grouping all economies is found.es_ES
dc.format.extent38 pag.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.language.isoenges_ES
dc.publisherUAM. Departamento de Análisis Económico, Teoría Económica e Historia Económicaes_ES
dc.relation.ispartofseriesEconomic analysis working papers series. 4/2015en_US
dc.subject.otherHistorical business cyclesen_US
dc.subject.otherSpectral analysisen_US
dc.subject.otherUnobserved component modelsen_US
dc.subject.otherMaddison’s time seriesen_US
dc.titleA contribution to the analysis of historical economic fluctuations (1870-2010): filtering, spurious cycles and unobserved component modellingen_US
dc.typeworkingPaperen_US
dc.subject.ecienciaEconomíaes_ES
dc.subject.ecienciaEmpresaes_ES
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.authorUAMFernández De Pinedo Echevarría, Nadia (261159)
dc.authorUAMMuñoz Pérez, Félix Fernando (258602)
dc.facultadUAMFacultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales


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