Mañana, JUEVES, 24 DE ABRIL, el sistema se apagará debido a tareas habituales de mantenimiento a partir de las 9 de la mañana. Lamentamos las molestias.
Rate equations approach to simulate world population trends
Entity
UAM. Departamento de Análisis Económico, Teoría Económica e Historia EconómicaPublisher
Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Departamento de Análisis Económico: Teoría Económica e Historia EconómicaDate
2011Serie/Num.
Economic analysis working papers series. 7/2011ISSN
1885-6888Subjects
Rate equations; Demographic transition; Population trend simulation; World population decline; EconomíaAbstract
According to UN statistical data and projections world population will begin to
decrease by the middle of this century. This paper uses rate equations (fully analogous to those
employed in condensed matter physics) to simulate the time evolution of world population,
making use of UN population data in the time interval 1900-2010, and to extrapolate the
evolution of world population into the near future. This approach has not been used in
economics and population dynamics. The simulation predicts a population decline by midcentury.
The economic consequences of population decline would be far reaching.
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Google Scholar:Gonzalo, Julio A.
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Muñoz Pérez, Félix Fernando
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Santos, David J.
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