Technological forecasting and regulatory assessment: an application to assisted reproductive technologies

Abstract

The aim of this thesis is to assess the trajectories of artificial reproductive technology (ART) and its pace of diffusion by identifying the factors that influence this process. This general objective can be split into the following specific objectives. First, to conduct a technology forecasting exercise in order to better understand the potential developments in IVF, PGD, and genetic engineering. Second, to identify the factors affecting regulation and priority setting regarding ART and to review the responses to technological and market developments in the field, through a regulatory assessment and a comparative analysis between Israel and Spain. Third, to assess the regulatory trends that may (or not) lead to the “geneticization” of reproduction (i.e. the shift of reproduction into the lab due to the ability to select or design genetic traits of embryos). These three sub-objectives define the structure of this thesis around three chapters, which have been drafted as independent papers to be published in scientific journals