On the economic effects of a res local industry deployment in Morocco: A case of study defining scenarios from a survey to stakeholders

Abstract

The aim of this article is to simulate the economic impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employment of renewable energy sources investment in Morocco over the next 40 years. In this sense, several potential scenarios of energy component evolution have been used based on the results of a specific survey to sector stakeholders. We obtain accurate results, avoiding speculative/theoretical assumptions in terms of scenario design. As usual in the sector, a Dynamic Input-Output Model (DI-O) is used to estimate the direct and indirect effects of such a large investment and, avoiding the criticism of this type of model in the context of long-term simulations, the alternative of de Arce et al. (2012) is used. In this framework, substantial results derive from the three scenarios considered: the increase in Moroccan GDP as a result of this investment could be around 1.2-1.7 points and, on average, 42,000 new jobs could be created.