Effects of COVID-19 on trade flows: Measuring their impact through government policy responses
EntityUAM. Departamento de Estructura Económica y Economía del Desarrollo
PublisherPublic Library of Science
10.1371/journal.pone.0258356PLoS One 16.10 (2021): e0258356
Funded byUniversidad de Alcalá de Henares (UAH) and Banco Santander through research project COVID-19 UAH 2019/00003/016/001/007. De Lucio also thanks financial support from Comunidad de Madrid and UAH (ref: EPUINV/2020/006 and H2019/HUM5761)
SubjectsBusiness-cycle synchronization; International-Trade; Agreements; Gravity; Economía
Rights© 2021 Barbero et al
Esta obra está bajo una Licencia Creative Commons Atribución 4.0 Internacional.
This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on bilateral trade flows using a state-of-the-art gravity model of trade. Using the monthly trade data of 68 countries exporting across 222 destinations between January 2019 and October 2020, our results are threefold. First, we find a greater negative impact of COVID-19 on bilateral trade for those countries that were members of regional trade agreements before the pandemic. Second, we find that the impact of COVID-19 is negative and significant when we consider indicators related to governmental actions. Finally, this negative effect is more intense when exporter and importer country share identical income levels. In the latter case, the highest negative impact is found for exports between high-income countries
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