On the effect of COVID-19 pandemic in the excess of human mortality. The case of Brazil and Spain
Entidad
UAM. Departamento de Análisis Económico: Economía CuantitativaEditor
Public Library of ScienceFecha de edición
2021-09-02Cita
10.1371/journal.pone.0255909
Plos One 16.9 (2021): e0255909
ISSN
1932-6203DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0255909Financiado por
This work was supported in the form of funding in part by Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacio´n of Spain (Grant No. PID2019-108079GB-C22/AEI/10.13039/501100011033)awarded to NTProyecto
Gobierno de España. PID2019-108079GB-C22; Gobierno de España. AEI/10.13039/501100011033Versión del editor
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0255909Materias
United-States; Influenza; Epidemic; Impact; EconomíaDerechos
© Borrego–Morell et alResumen
Excess of deaths is a technique used in epidemiology to assess the deaths caused by an unexpected event. For the present COVID-19 pandemic, we discuss the performance of some linear and nonlinear time series forecasting techniques widely used for modeling the actual pandemic and provide estimates for this metric from January 2020 to April 2021. We apply the results obtained to evaluate the evolution of the present pandemic in Brazil and Spain, which allows in particular to compare how well (or bad) these countries have managed the pandemic. For Brazil, our calculations refute the claim made by some officials that the present pandemic is "a little flu". Some studies suggest that the virus could be lying dormant across the world before been detected for the first time. In that regard, our results show that there is no evidence of deaths by the virus in 2019
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Google Scholar:Borrego-Morell, Jorge A.
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Huertas, Edmundo J.
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Torrado Robles, Nuria
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