A new formulation of compartmental epidemic modelling for arbitrary distributions of incubation and removal times
Entity
UAM. Departamento de Física TeóricaPublisher
Public Library of ScienceDate
2021-02-03Citation
10.1371/journal.pone.0244107
Plos One 16.2 (2021): e0244107
ISSN
1932-6203 (online)DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0244107Editor's Version
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0244107Subjects
Coronavirus Disease 2019; Disease Transmission; Epidemic; Molecular Dynamics; Biological Model; FísicaRights
© 2021 Hernández et al.Abstract
The paradigm for compartment models in epidemiology assumes exponentially distributed
incubation and removal times, which is not realistic in actual populations. Commonly used
variations with multiple exponentially distributed variables are more flexible, yet do not allow
for arbitrary distributions. We present a new formulation, focussing on the SEIR concept
that allows to include general distributions of incubation and removal times. We compare
the solution to two types of agent-based model simulations, a spatially homogeneous one
where infection occurs by proximity, and a model on a scale-free network with varying clustering properties, where the infection between any two agents occurs via their link if it exists.
We find good agreement in both cases. Furthermore a family of asymptotic solutions of the
equations is found in terms of a logistic curve, which after a non-universal time shift, fits
extremely well all the microdynamical simulations. The formulation allows for a simple
numerical approach; software in Julia and Python is provided
Files in this item
Google Scholar:Hernández, Pilar
-
Pena Ruano, Carlos Roberto
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Ramos, Alberto
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Gómez-Cadenas, Juan José
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